Analysts at TD Securities (TDS) offer a sneak peek at what they expect from Friday’s Chinese trade data release.
“China’s exports and imports have held up remarkably well over recent months, with trade proving to be resilient even as other parts of the economy slow.”
“Indications from weak PMI exports and imports components have not come to fruition and we expect this to continue, with trade likely to remain firm.”
“For December we forecast a 22.6% y/y (cons. 19%) increase in exports and 31.2% y/y (cons. 27.6%) increase in imports, both in USD terms. As indicated by solid South Korean imports demand from China over the month (27.1% y/y), exports are likely to perform well.”
“We expect stay at home goods and medical equipment to continue to lead exports demand, especially given the rapid spread of Omicron. Support measures and some easing in import restrictions are likely to also help buoy Chinese imports demand.”
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